\(y=ax+b\)
\(y=ax+b\)
"[…], Liberia and Sierra Leone will have approximately 550,000 Ebola cases (1.4 million when corrected for underreporting)"
Meltzer, 2014
What really happened
"[…], Liberia and Sierra Leone will have approximately 550,000 Ebola cases (1.4 million when corrected for underreporting)"
Meltzer, 2014
"without additional interventions or changes in community behavior (e.g., notable reductions in unsafe burial practices), the model also estimates that Liberia and Sierra Leone will have approximately 550,000 Ebola cases (1.4 million…)"
Meltzer, 2014
courtesy of Samuel V. Scarpino @svscarpino
Metcalf & Lessler (2017)
WHO Ebola response team (2014)
\(d\log(R_0(t)) = \sigma dW_t\)
Dureau (2013)
Andrieu (2010), Murray (2013)
Meaningful forecasts are probabilistic.
Meaningful forecasts are probabilistic.
Evaluating probabilistic forecasts requires
multiple observations.
Improve forecasts by considering
all available data streams
(individual/behavioural/spatial/genetic)?
Louis du Plessis, University of Oxford (unpublished)
Anton Camacho, Adam Kucharski, John Edmunds, Rachel Lowe,
Roz Eggo (LSHTM), Louis du Plessis (Oxford),
Tilmann Gneiting (Heidelberg), James Hensman (prowler.io),
Lawrence Murray (Uppsala)
Semi-mechanistic models as a way of incorporating uncertainty about the processes driving infectious disease dynamics.
Assessing the performance of real-time epidemic forecasts.
S.F., A. Camacho, A. J. Kucharski, R. Lowe, R. M. Eggo, W. J. Edmunds.
bioRxiv (2018) doi:10.1101/177451
Real-time forecasting of infectious disease dynamics with a stochastic semi-mechanistic model.
S.F., A. Camacho, A. J. Kucharski, R. M. Eggo, W. J. Edmunds.
Epidemics (2018) 22:56–61.
The impact of control strategies and behavioural changes on the elimination of Ebola from Lofa County, Liberia.
S.F., I. Ciglenecki, A. Tiffany, E. Gignoux et al.
Philos T R Soc B (2017) 372:1721.